Line drawn for trade values

[Oriole81]

It's a dynamic process so applying arbritrary values to a pick number doesn't make sense. Like if Caleb Williams fell to #2, you wouldn't increase your offer?

If I'm Wash, there's no amount of picks that I could get that would make me trade out, so I find the exercise about me coming from the other side and trading into #2 as unnecessary.

[hategreenticemase]

It's a dynamic process so applying arbritrary values to a pick number doesn't make sense. Like if Caleb Williams fell to #2, you wouldn't increase your offer?

If I'm Wash, there's no amount of picks that I could get that would make me trade out, so I find the exercise about me coming from the other side and trading into #2 as unnecessary.

No amount of picks? So you wouldn't take 5 firsts and 3 seconds? Come on.

[RubeTube]

[Beef Supreme]

Full quote:

"There are multiple [QBs] that we are in love with just on an outright basis. But there are also other guys we're in love with, given if we got them at a certain value..."


It's all negotiation and smokescreen, but I don't love this. I think with most things, being value conscious is smart. But with quarterbacks I think paying a lot more for the better guy makes sense. I kind of view it as a separate operation from the rest of the roster build. Paying a lot to get the 3rd guy instead of the 4th guy makes more sense for a QB than it does for the rest of your big board.

[RubeTube]

Full quote:

"There are multiple [QBs] that we are in love with just on an outright basis. But there are also other guys we're in love with, given if we got them at a certain value..."


It's all negotiation and smokescreen, but I don't love this. I think with most things, being value conscious is smart. But with quarterbacks I think paying a lot more for the better guy makes sense. I kind of view it as a separate operation from the rest of the roster build. Paying a lot to get the 3rd guy instead of the 4th guy makes more sense for a QB than it does for the rest of your big board.

This won’t end well. We reek of desperation. Many teams need a QB but we are the talk of the draft with how desperate we are.

[Beef Supreme]

Full quote:

"There are multiple [QBs] that we are in love with just on an outright basis. But there are also other guys we're in love with, given if we got them at a certain value..."


It's all negotiation and smokescreen, but I don't love this. I think with most things, being value conscious is smart. But with quarterbacks I think paying a lot more for the better guy makes sense. I kind of view it as a separate operation from the rest of the roster build. Paying a lot to get the 3rd guy instead of the 4th guy makes more sense for a QB than it does for the rest of your big board.

This won’t end well. We reek of desperation. Many teams need a QB but we are the talk of the draft with how desperate we are.

That quote is the opposite of desperation. I’m not sure I buy it, but it’s not a statement that reflects desperation.

[Oriole81]

It's a dynamic process so applying arbritrary values to a pick number doesn't make sense. Like if Caleb Williams fell to #2, you wouldn't increase your offer?

If I'm Wash, there's no amount of picks that I could get that would make me trade out, so I find the exercise about me coming from the other side and trading into #2 as unnecessary.

No amount of picks? So you wouldn't take 5 firsts and 3 seconds? Come on.

No

[minnemike]

Full quote:

"There are multiple [QBs] that we are in love with just on an outright basis. But there are also other guys we're in love with, given if we got them at a certain value..."


It's all negotiation and smokescreen, but I don't love this. I think with most things, being value conscious is smart. But with quarterbacks I think paying a lot more for the better guy makes sense. I kind of view it as a separate operation from the rest of the roster build. Paying a lot to get the 3rd guy instead of the 4th guy makes more sense for a QB than it does for the rest of your big board.

This won’t end well. We reek of desperation. Many teams need a QB but we are the talk of the draft with how desperate we are.

That quote is the opposite of desperation. I’m not sure I buy it, but it’s not a statement that reflects desperation.

I dont buy it either... he's just trying to create leverage. And I dont think we can ignore leverage being created from a guy like Daniel's camp, or even Maye. Their agents may want to see a trade happen and apply some pressure on these crap situations where the odds for QB failure are higher. Everyone has a stake in this game and will try to address their best interests. I bet there are alot of behind the scenes shit going down that we as the public will never know about. Eli Manning's dad even leveraged his way out of SD. So, stranger things have in fact happened.

[Beef Supreme]

This won’t end well. We reek of desperation. Many teams need a QB but we are the talk of the draft with how desperate we are.

That quote is the opposite of desperation. I’m not sure I buy it, but it’s not a statement that reflects desperation.

I dont buy it either... he's just trying to create leverage. And I dont think we can ignore leverage being created from a guy like Daniel's camp, or even Maye. Their agents may want to see a trade happen and apply some pressure on these crap situations where the odds for QB failure are higher. Everyone has a stake in this game and will try to address their best interests. I bet there are alot of behind the scenes shit going down that we as the public will never know about. Eli Manning's dad even leveraged his way out of SD. So, stranger things have in fact happened.

Yep. We fans are only privy to the tip of the iceberg. Any absolute statements are foolish. <—- Except that absolute statement. That one’s awesome.

[Beetlejuice]

This won’t end well. We reek of desperation. Many teams need a QB but we are the talk of the draft with how desperate we are.

That quote is the opposite of desperation. I’m not sure I buy it, but it’s not a statement that reflects desperation.

I dont buy it either... he's just trying to create leverage. And I dont think we can ignore leverage being created from a guy like Daniel's camp, or even Maye. Their agents may want to see a trade happen and apply some pressure on these crap situations where the odds for QB failure are higher. Everyone has a stake in this game and will try to address their best interests. I bet there are alot of behind the scenes shit going down that we as the public will never know about. Eli Manning's dad even leveraged his way out of SD. So, stranger things have in fact happened.

I just see it as him saying that he won’t overpay on a prospect that they don’t covet. Kwesi has no leverage. Everybody knows he’s looking to trade up.

[Oriole81]

This won’t end well. We reek of desperation. Many teams need a QB but we are the talk of the draft with how desperate we are.

That quote is the opposite of desperation. I’m not sure I buy it, but it’s not a statement that reflects desperation.

I dont buy it either... he's just trying to create leverage. And I dont think we can ignore leverage being created from a guy like Daniel's camp, or even Maye. Their agents may want to see a trade happen and apply some pressure on these crap situations where the odds for QB failure are higher. Everyone has a stake in this game and will try to address their best interests. I bet there are alot of behind the scenes shit going down that we as the public will never know about. Eli Manning's dad even leveraged his way out of SD. So, stranger things have in fact happened.

I think the leverage is against the Chargers.

If QB4 is on the board come pick 5, it would behoove the Vikes to make a reasonable trade up.
However, the Chargers trading down to 11 and 23 is actually in their best interest too. Them sticking and picking at 5 is actually pretty ridiculous I think, and they're not going to trade to 12 or 13 (Den and LV) and gift wrap a QB to someone in their division, so this is actually a perfect win/win for both sides.

But if they're getting a little too big for their britches thinking they can apply added pressure because this is QB4, then call them on it and say we're completely fine sticking at 11 if they're not willing to accept a completely fair market offer.

We know they're not going to trade with Den or LV, we know they're better off trading down, and I'm sure NYG or TN would be happy to accept our offer if the Chargers actually stick at 5.

[William Munny]

I am at the point that at which the Vikes should just blow their load and get Maye or McCarthy. I suppose I would be willing to give Daniels a chance, but I think that his NFL career is going to be mare with injury. I am also skeptical that he has the necessary patience to sit in the pocket as long as is required to be really good and doubt that he is NFL worthy at going through progressions.

[witljon]

Trade value isn’t solely dependent on the picks, it also depends on how convinced you are of the player you’re trading up for. If koc fully believes in maye succeeding then next years 1st round pick/lack thereof will be irrelevant 5 years from now. If you’re convinced you have your qb do whatever it takes to get him

In the grand scheme it doesn't matter if your guy becomes a stud, but what does matter in the short term at least, is the process of how you got to that decision and how it compares to how other team's find their franchise QBs.

What we do know is that most successful organizations have not had to trade 3 first round picks to find their guy. In fact, most are not close to that.

So why is Kwesi, a guy that is still new to the GM game and who's track record is "incomplete" to put it nicely, thinking of doing it?

That is a question that is definitely fair to ask.

You can be sure Kevin O’Connell’s influence will weigh
heavily on the draft process.

[Mnwild1128]

It's a dynamic process so applying arbritrary values to a pick number doesn't make sense. Like if Caleb Williams fell to #2, you wouldn't increase your offer?

If I'm Wash, there's no amount of picks that I could get that would make me trade out, so I find the exercise about me coming from the other side and trading into #2 as unnecessary.

For a sketchy at best QB prospect at pick #1? Dookay. He is no Joe Burrow bruh.

[Mnwild1128]

That quote is the opposite of desperation. I’m not sure I buy it, but it’s not a statement that reflects desperation.

I dont buy it either... he's just trying to create leverage. And I dont think we can ignore leverage being created from a guy like Daniel's camp, or even Maye. Their agents may want to see a trade happen and apply some pressure on these crap situations where the odds for QB failure are higher. Everyone has a stake in this game and will try to address their best interests. I bet there are alot of behind the scenes shit going down that we as the public will never know about. Eli Manning's dad even leveraged his way out of SD. So, stranger things have in fact happened.

Yep. We fans are only privy to the tip of the iceberg. Any absolute statements are foolish. <—- Except that absolute statement. That one’s awesome.

Yep. Hearing people say, we love this guy or that guy, is absolute insanity. No one has any smidge of a clue.

[Mnwild1128]

Full quote:

"There are multiple [QBs] that we are in love with just on an outright basis. But there are also other guys we're in love with, given if we got them at a certain value..."


It's all negotiation and smokescreen, but I don't love this. I think with most things, being value conscious is smart. But with quarterbacks I think paying a lot more for the better guy makes sense. I kind of view it as a separate operation from the rest of the roster build. Paying a lot to get the 3rd guy instead of the 4th guy makes more sense for a QB than it does for the rest of your big board.

This is one of three things. The truth. A smokescreen for the league, so no one knows who we truly like. Or a P.R. stunt, so they can say "we told you we liked lots of guys at lots of spots on the draft board." So that the fan base is less in an uproar.

[Obi-Wan]

Here is my current valuation for a trade.

1. #2 overall - I would only trade three #1 picks (includes two #1s this year plus garnish if needed) for pick #2... that likely means the ability to pick anyone that isnt Caleb. That is a fair deal.

2. #3 overall - I would trade the two #1s and throw in something substantial like two #3s next year.

3. #4 overall - Same as above, except a little less garnish.

4. #5 overall - only doable if their guy is still there. And it should only requires the two #1s for this year.

5. If the top guys they want are more than the above, I pick Penix at 11.

Reasoning... if QB needy teams want to trade out, they know they are in position to ruin that QB with total crap around him. This puts MN as the preferred spot for most QBs coming in and I bet their agents and such will push them to trade.

You aren’t getting into the top 5 without giving up 3-1sts

Not worth it imo. I'd rather they make top 5 organically. With darnold or some rookie they have a shot. Right now there does not appear many good QB next year but that can change.

The scenario I would like to see play out Is trade down from 11 and get some extra picks and then take penix or nix at 23.

[Hornets]

Thank goodness we'll FINALLY know what we'll get in just over a week...

[salamander]

False.

You more than anybody on here decries the fallacy of romanticizing the rookie QB, and bring up how often teams bust on highly drafted QBs.

Again, I'm not talking about Day 2 and later guys. I'm talking about first round picks here still.
I'm not trying to make the case for Spencer Rattler or Michael Pratt.

But it doesn't make the claim about higher drafted players no working out better.

I created a database of NFL draft picks for the past 20 or so years. I included the "weighted average value" of each of the players.

The average WAV of the first overall is 71. The WAV of #2 overall is 54, the biggest one step drop (if you smooth out the values a bit) anywere. Pick 10 is in the 40-45 range. Pick 32 is in the 30's. Again, with some smoothing it declines to the 20s in the 2nd round, teens in the 3rd. And so on and so on.

If you look at positions taken in the first round, the QB position has the highest career average value. The QB position WAV starts to converge with other positions in the 2nd round. In the 3rd round and later it is no longer the top value position.

A QB selected in round 1 has a WAV of 49. In round 2 30. Round 3 13. Round 4 11. Interestingly, in round 5 (Jaren Hall) WAV=2. Round 6 8. Round 7 WAV is 4.

Now WAV is not the greatest measure because it is a career cumulative statistic. Brock Purdy might drive that WAV up a bit just himself, but then there were 61 quarterbacks chosen in round 7 in this time span.

Isn't Oriole specifically talking about QB's in the first round? Why are you talking about other rounds?

I don't know, I didn't read the whole conversation.

[Beetlejuice]

Still giving up that first rounder since the second rounders were traded to Houston.

[Oriole81]

Still giving up that first rounder since the second rounders were traded to Houston.

If the 2018 draft is supposed to be a true mirror of this year, then the takeaway should be that you don't need to trade more than the two firsts in order to get into the Top 5ish.

Picks 4-6 were all teams that didn't need a QB, so I'm sure they were on the phones with Buff before they made their picks, trying to get them to sweeten the pot, and bluff that other teams were prepared to move.
Yet all of those teams ended up sticking and picking at 4-6.

We don't know exactly why Buff held out until #7 before trading up, but the fact that they did when I'm sure all the other teams tried to leverage their "desperation" is impressive.

This year, I don't think AZ wants to move out of 4 and LAC are better off trading down with us, so don't let them fool you into thinking you need to overpay or that it's this or nothing.

[mlhouse]

You more than anybody on here decries the fallacy of romanticizing the rookie QB, and bring up how often teams bust on highly drafted QBs.

Again, I'm not talking about Day 2 and later guys. I'm talking about first round picks here still.
I'm not trying to make the case for Spencer Rattler or Michael Pratt.

But it doesn't make the claim about higher drafted players no working out better.

I created a database of NFL draft picks for the past 20 or so years. I included the "weighted average value" of each of the players.

The average WAV of the first overall is 71. The WAV of #2 overall is 54, the biggest one step drop (if you smooth out the values a bit) anywere. Pick 10 is in the 40-45 range. Pick 32 is in the 30's. Again, with some smoothing it declines to the 20s in the 2nd round, teens in the 3rd. And so on and so on.

If you look at positions taken in the first round, the QB position has the highest career average value. The QB position WAV starts to converge with other positions in the 2nd round. In the 3rd round and later it is no longer the top value position.

A QB selected in round 1 has a WAV of 49. In round 2 30. Round 3 13. Round 4 11. Interestingly, in round 5 (Jaren Hall) WAV=2. Round 6 8. Round 7 WAV is 4.

Now WAV is not the greatest measure because it is a career cumulative statistic. Brock Purdy might drive that WAV up a bit just himself, but then there were 61 quarterbacks chosen in round 7 in this time span.

Isn't Oriole specifically talking about QB's in the first round? Why are you talking about other rounds?

I don't know, I didn't read the whole conversation.

A QB selected in round 1 has a WAV of 49. In round 2 30. Round 3 13. Round 4 11. Interestingly, in round 5 (Jaren Hall) WAV=2. Round 6 8. Round 7 WAV is 4.

[salamander]

This year, I don't think AZ wants to move out of 4 and LAC are better off trading down with us, so don't let them fool you into thinking you need to overpay or that it's this or nothing.

Marvin Harrison Jr. won't make it past AZ. This will be Kyler Murrey's final year to prove it.

[salamander]

But it doesn't make the claim about higher drafted players no working out better.

I created a database of NFL draft picks for the past 20 or so years. I included the "weighted average value" of each of the players.

The average WAV of the first overall is 71. The WAV of #2 overall is 54, the biggest one step drop (if you smooth out the values a bit) anywere. Pick 10 is in the 40-45 range. Pick 32 is in the 30's. Again, with some smoothing it declines to the 20s in the 2nd round, teens in the 3rd. And so on and so on.

If you look at positions taken in the first round, the QB position has the highest career average value. The QB position WAV starts to converge with other positions in the 2nd round. In the 3rd round and later it is no longer the top value position.

A QB selected in round 1 has a WAV of 49. In round 2 30. Round 3 13. Round 4 11. Interestingly, in round 5 (Jaren Hall) WAV=2. Round 6 8. Round 7 WAV is 4.

Now WAV is not the greatest measure because it is a career cumulative statistic. Brock Purdy might drive that WAV up a bit just himself, but then there were 61 quarterbacks chosen in round 7 in this time span.

Isn't Oriole specifically talking about QB's in the first round? Why are you talking about other rounds?

I don't know, I didn't read the whole conversation.

A QB selected in round 1 has a WAV of 49. In round 2 30. Round 3 13. Round 4 11. Interestingly, in round 5 (Jaren Hall) WAV=2. Round 6 8. Round 7 WAV is 4.

I get all that. Oriole was specifically talking about QB's in the first round.

[Oriole81]

This year, I don't think AZ wants to move out of 4 and LAC are better off trading down with us, so don't let them fool you into thinking you need to overpay or that it's this or nothing.

Marvin Harrison Jr. won't make it past AZ. This will be Kyler Murrey's final year to prove it.

I know, that's why I don't think AZ really wants to move out.
I think there's just smoke coming from them because they just want attention and don't want to be glossed over in the swooning.

Now I could see a scenario where we do a 3 way trade with us going to 4, AZ going to 5 for a small kick back like a 4th, and LAC going back to 11/23, but I really don't think they're going to trade out of the MHJ pick unless they can drive the price so damn high..

So call them on it. Say I don't think you're going to pass on your guy here (just like none of the 4-6 pick teams did in 2018) and make them stick and pick at 4.

[mlhouse]

Isn't Oriole specifically talking about QB's in the first round? Why are you talking about other rounds?

I don't know, I didn't read the whole conversation.

A QB selected in round 1 has a WAV of 49. In round 2 30. Round 3 13. Round 4 11. Interestingly, in round 5 (Jaren Hall) WAV=2. Round 6 8. Round 7 WAV is 4.

I get all that. Oriole was specifically talking about QB's in the first round.

And he is totally wrong on that claim too.

[minnemike]

This year, I don't think AZ wants to move out of 4 and LAC are better off trading down with us, so don't let them fool you into thinking you need to overpay or that it's this or nothing.

Marvin Harrison Jr. won't make it past AZ. This will be Kyler Murrey's final year to prove it.

I know, that's why I don't think AZ really wants to move out.
I think there's just smoke coming from them because they just want attention and don't want to be glossed over in the swooning.

Now I could see a scenario where we do a 3 way trade with us going to 4, AZ going to 5 for a small kick back like a 4th, and LAC going back to 11/23, but I really don't think they're going to trade out of the MHJ pick unless they can drive the price so damn high..

So call them on it. Say I don't think you're going to pass on your guy here (just like none of the 4-6 pick teams did in 2018) and make them stick and pick at 4.

It's not even an effort there... if AZ picks a WR, it's no skin off MN's back. It just means a #5 trade is cheaper. In some sense MN could say, please and thank you to that.

[Oriole81]

Marvin Harrison Jr. won't make it past AZ. This will be Kyler Murrey's final year to prove it.

I know, that's why I don't think AZ really wants to move out.
I think there's just smoke coming from them because they just want attention and don't want to be glossed over in the swooning.

Now I could see a scenario where we do a 3 way trade with us going to 4, AZ going to 5 for a small kick back like a 4th, and LAC going back to 11/23, but I really don't think they're going to trade out of the MHJ pick unless they can drive the price so damn high..

So call them on it. Say I don't think you're going to pass on your guy here (just like none of the 4-6 pick teams did in 2018) and make them stick and pick at 4.

It's not even an effort there... if AZ picks a WR, it's no skin off MN's back. It just means a #5 trade is cheaper. In some sense MN could say, please and thank you to that.

AZ's "pitch" is that they would be content getting Nabers or Odunze on top of a big trade down bounty, and that would make them happy.
That's their only angle for even being in this conversation, the illusion that they could be willing to pass on MHJ for a bounty of picks.

Take it back to 2018 like this thread, Cle and Den could have theoretically made the same pitch to Buff that they would be content with DB2 or DL2, and Buff called them on it. Cle stayed at 4 and took Ward and Den stayed at 5 and took Chubb.

Do the same thing with AZ. Tell them they will get a market based offer just like every other team, or they can just stick and pick Harrison at 4 like we all know they really want to do.

[Señor Trumpo]

I know, that's why I don't think AZ really wants to move out.
I think there's just smoke coming from them because they just want attention and don't want to be glossed over in the swooning.

Now I could see a scenario where we do a 3 way trade with us going to 4, AZ going to 5 for a small kick back like a 4th, and LAC going back to 11/23, but I really don't think they're going to trade out of the MHJ pick unless they can drive the price so damn high..

So call them on it. Say I don't think you're going to pass on your guy here (just like none of the 4-6 pick teams did in 2018) and make them stick and pick at 4.

It's not even an effort there... if AZ picks a WR, it's no skin off MN's back. It just means a #5 trade is cheaper. In some sense MN could say, please and thank you to that.

AZ's "pitch" is that they would be content getting Nabers or Odunze on top of a big trade down bounty, and that would make them happy.
That's their only angle for even being in this conversation, the illusion that they could be willing to pass on MHJ for a bounty of picks.

Take it back to 2018 like this thread, Cle and Den could have theoretically made the same pitch to Buff that they would be content with DB2 or DL2, and Buff called them on it. Cle stayed at 4 and took Ward and Den stayed at 5 and took Chubb.

Do the same thing with AZ. Tell them they will get a market based offer just like every other team, or they can just stick and pick Harrison at 4 like we all know they really want to do.

If AZ wants to play hardball let them trade with the Giants. I think it's 60/40 that the Giants would take Harrison Jr over whichever QB is left. Their regime has to win otherwise they're gone. I don't think taking McCarthy or Maye is going to help them win games in 2024. Then Chargers take the 2nd WR and AZ is left with the last of the big 3. Vikings then trade up to 8 with ATL and take the last of the top 4 QBs without giving up 23.

[Oriole81]

It's not even an effort there... if AZ picks a WR, it's no skin off MN's back. It just means a #5 trade is cheaper. In some sense MN could say, please and thank you to that.

AZ's "pitch" is that they would be content getting Nabers or Odunze on top of a big trade down bounty, and that would make them happy.
That's their only angle for even being in this conversation, the illusion that they could be willing to pass on MHJ for a bounty of picks.

Take it back to 2018 like this thread, Cle and Den could have theoretically made the same pitch to Buff that they would be content with DB2 or DL2, and Buff called them on it. Cle stayed at 4 and took Ward and Den stayed at 5 and took Chubb.

Do the same thing with AZ. Tell them they will get a market based offer just like every other team, or they can just stick and pick Harrison at 4 like we all know they really want to do.

If AZ wants to play hardball let them trade with the Giants. I think it's 60/40 that the Giants would take Harrison Jr over whichever QB is left. Their regime has to win otherwise they're gone. I don't think taking McCarthy or Maye is going to help them win games in 2024. Then Chargers take the 2nd WR and AZ is left with the last of the big 3. Vikings then trade up to 8 with ATL and take the last of the top 4 QBs without giving up 23.

I don't understand this Giants angle going around.
How is their situation any different than ours?

Both their GM and HC are going into year 3, just like ours.
They had a very successful year one, culminating in actually beating us in the playoffs and their HC winning Coach of the Year

They too have a very good up and coming young defense, in fact probably better than ours and with 4 premier young players.
Need to get out from under an expensive veteran QB, but have opportunity to do that this draft.

How is that any different than us?
I don't think KOC and Kwesi are on the hot seats, in fact I think them selecting a long term QB actually buys them time.

I don't get it.